Newcastle United has turned its season around in the past couple of weeks, but the bookies don’t seem to have noticed.
The Magpies defied the betting odds twice before the Premier League took a break for international matches. First, they won at Tottenham – a win that will surely rank as one of the biggest upsets of the 2019-20 Premier League. Then they backed it up with a draw with Watford, another team that started the season with strong expectations.
With four points from the last two matches against top teams, you’d expect Newcastle would no longer be top three in relegation betting? Wrong, the bookies still consider Newcastle one of the worst betting prospects in the league. Thankfully, Newcastle fans can cash in if the Magpies consider to defy expectations.
Best Newcastle Bet: 8/1 to Finish in Top Half
If Newcastle can keep this brief run of decent form going for most of the season, there’s every chance the Magpies finish in the top 10. Yet unbelievably, the bookies have Newcastle at 8/1 to finish in the top half, putting the club ahead of only Norwich City and Sheffield United in the betting. If you’re Interested in learning more, Newcastle fans can find the best free bets on Freebets.com.
Judging by the bookies’ odds, eight teams are virtually assured of finishing in the top half: Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea, Leicester, and Everton. Wolves and West Ham are also top 10 in top-half betting, but these teams are vulnerable. In Wolves’ case, they’ve started the season more poorly than Newcastle.
The Magpies might not make the top 10 – but there’s no doubt the bookmakers are underrating them.
Cashing in: Newcastle at 350/1 to Make Top 4
Only the most fanatical Newcastle fans would consider the club a chance to make the top 4 this season – but stranger things have happened, right? Magpies fans would prefer to forget the 2015-16 English Premier League season, which saw Newcastle relegated to the Championship on the final day of the season. But who could forget the title winner that season: Leicester City, who at one stage were paying 5,000/1 for the title.
In comparison to 5,000/1 odds, the 350/1 odds Newcastle is carrying to make the top 4 is relative child’s play. It’s hard to see Man City or Liverpool missing the top 4, but that means two other spots are up for grabs. With most of the big teams struggling – Tottenham, the only team Newcastle has beaten so far, is the third favourite in betting – the door is open for a couple of smaller teams to surprise everyone.
Newcastle in next year’s Champions League: unlikely, but again we think the Magpies are under-priced.
The Bad News: Newcastle 6/4 to be Relegated
We’d rather not have to mention it, but we can’t exactly avoid the elephant in the room: the relegation betting market. The bookies appear not to have noticed Newcastle’s recent form and are still showing 6/4 odds for the Magpies to be relegated. The only teams likelier to move down a league are Sheffield United (another team whose form appears to have escaped the bookies’ attention), who are paying 6/5, and Norwich, 5/4.
The good news is that more than half the league – 12 teams to be exact – could realistically find themselves in relegation trouble by year’s end. Aston Villa, 15/8, Watford, 11/5, Brighton and Burnley, 9/4, Bournemouth, 7/2, and Crystal Palace, 9/2, are all in danger. Even Southampton, 5/1, West Ham, 14/1, and Wolves, 20/1, are seen as being at major risk.
