- Opta’s supercomputer predicts new Newcastle United finish
- Bruno Guimaraes lays out Magpies ambitions
- Eddie Howe’s side depend on other results
Following the much-needed 3–1 win over Brighton on Saturday, Newcastle United have retained a morsel of hope of securing European football next season.
The triumph, which ended a run of five straight defeats across all competitions, has seen Eddie Howe’s side climb up the supercomputer Premier League table produced by the stats experts at Opta. The Magpies need a rampant run of form to get into the European places – could they do it?
At the weekend, captain Bruno Guimaraes said: “It felt very good, in the changing room before he game we knew today was important for us, chasing European football for next season. The points are crucial, we keep dreaming and believing.
“It was a tough game, Brighton are a good team. Today for everything we have done we deserve the win.
“They had a lot of chances. In the first half we were better but second half they were better. I am glad we could keep three points.
“We are looking up not down. We can still play European football next season, we must win the next three games.”
Opta Premier League Supercomputer
Opta’s model has Newcastle finishing the season in the same 13th place they currently occupy.
The Magpies have a 0.06% chance of qualifying for the Europa League, which highlights just how unlikely it is.
Currently sitting on 45 points in the Premier League with three games remaining, Opta predicts Newcastle’s most likely total to be 49 points. This would mean a win, a draw and a defeat from their final three matches.
Of course, there are still permutations, but taking into account the expectation that sixth and seventh place will secure Europa League and Conference League spots respectively, Brighton and Bournemouth are the predicted sides to qualify for Europe.
To make matters worse for Newcastle fans, Opta not only considers European qualification highly unlikely, but has also predicted that the Magpies will finish below arch-rivals Sunderland, having already lost both Tyne–Wear derbies this season.
How can Newcastle United reach European football?
For Newcastle to secure European football, it is essential that they win all three of their remaining matches.
Even if that happens — which is already unlikely given their season so far — Newcastle will still need other results to go their way to sneak into one of those coveted spots.
Newcastle face Fulham on the final day, which could become a European decider depending on how results unfold for both sides.
Their other fixtures, against relegation candidates Nottingham Forest and West Ham, could provide an opportunity to pick up points and apply pressure on those currently above them as the season draws to a close.
In other news, What Bruno Guimaraes did in 39th minute shows Newcastle United are so back.
