It hasn’t exactly been a great start to the season for Newcastle and they entered the final week of September in 19th position, with only Burnley propping them up on goal difference after five rounds of the new season. It is at this stage of a season where a tough run of fixtures can make things appear a lot worse than they actually are.
Newcastle’s only point this season came against Huddersfield, where Isaac Hayden got himself sent off after 66 minutes. In the league, every other result so far has, curiously, been a 2-1 loss. Yet, when one looks at who those results have been against, it keeps the ever-dwindling hopes of an upturn in fortunes alive.
Four out of Newcastle’s first five Premier League games have been against teams in the so-called ‘big six’, which is an elite group constituting the same six teams that have occupied the final top six for the past two seasons. Yet, over the next 13 games, Newcastle will only have to play a team in that elite group once more. However, facing weaker teams carries pressure in itself, and there is nothing to suggest that everything in the Newcastle camp is sweetness and light.
Balance is crucial to survival
Undeniably, the team isn’t quite clicking as it did last season, causing the club’s buy/sell price for relegation here to rise gradually. Certainly, attaining the goal tally necessary to at least survive is still an ongoing problem. Last season, the team only scored 39 goals, constituting a poor tally of just over 1.0 goals per game. Nonetheless, Newcastle still finished in an impressive 10th place, but it was telling that the team above them (Leicester) scored an impressive 56 goals, utterly dwarfing the Magpies’ final tally.
With Rafa Benitez known as a defensive manager, many Geordies point to his tactics as the reason for Newcastle’s shyness in the final third. Last term, Newcastle were able to claim such a high position on the back of their impressive defensive record, famously conceding less goals than an Arsenal side that finished four places above them.
In hindsight, letting Aleksandar Mitrovic leave the club, after his hot start in a Fulham shirt this season, looks like a poor decision. Benitez’ favoured formation of playing Ayoze Perez behind Joselu just doesn’t seem to provide enough goals for the team, and he has also changed that up a few times this season. His go-to differential setup is to play five at the back with Rondon up front, which doesn’t offer the target man himself the support he needs to deliver.
Too good to go down?
Newcastle fans have heard the term ‘too good to go down’ before, and probably wince at the phrase, given that the club has experienced two relegations (and subsequent promotions) in the past decade. At the very least, Benitez’ CV is not one that is not associated with disaster, and many believe he is too good a manager to let any rot set in, as it has done with countless Newcastle teams in the past.
What Benitez needs is support from the fans, which he has, and support from the board – which he apparently hasn’t. With the defensive shapes that Benitez is known for, teams outside of the top six are always going to find it hard to score past Newcastle. He may not have a lot to work with in terms of personnel but most would back him to get the best out of his players.
The fixtures are about to get a whole lot easier for Newcastle and the points will surely start to be picked up. While the height of last season’s 10th placed finish seems a long way off from here, Premier League survival doesn’t. A win or two in the next few games will soon see any gloom lifted from St.James’ Park.
